ARLINGTON, Va. – US truck tonnage decreased 0.3% in October, but American Trucking Associations’ chief economist Bob Costello says the trough is likely near.

Tonnage was down 0.9% year-over-year in October, marking the second consecutive month of y-o-y declines. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 2.5% over the same period in 2015.

“While seasonally adjusted tonnage fell, meaning the not seasonally adjusted gain wasn’t as large as expected, the bottom of the current tonnage cycle should be near,” said Costello.

“There are some recent trends that suggest truck freight should improve, albeit gradually, soon. Retail sales, housing starts, and even factory output all improved in October, which is a good sign. Most importantly, there has been considerable progress made in clearing out excess stocks throughout the supply chain. While that correction is still ongoing, there has been enough improvement that the negative drag on tonnage shouldn’t be as large going forward.”