Statistics Guide 2025 | Today's Trucking

Freight downturn drags into third year as capacity stubbornly clings on

If there was a theme of the year in the Canadian freight market, it was 'uncertainty.' Uncertainty over the economy, over tariffs, over relations with our largest trade partner, over emissions regulations and over myriad other regulatory actions. Uncertainty hung over the industry like a dark cloud as the freight market entered its third year of recessionary conditions. Read more

And that is reflected in the stats we monitor throughout the year and present for you in our annual Stats Guide. Truck and trailer orders have plummeted, causing OEMs to curtail production. Fleets are sweating out their assets and sitting on the sidelines rather than investing capital into new equipment.

The spot market on both sides of the border was unable to break loose and sustain any momentum. The industry economists and experts we look to for guidance unanimously report any recovery in 2026 will have to come from the shedding of capacity and not be reliant on a surge in freight demand, which isn't expected to materialize, at least through the first half of the year.

Capacity is leaving the market, albeit slowly. Publicly traded fleets hinge their hopes on an onslaught of regulatory enforcement in the U.S. that could potentially remove hundreds of thousands of drivers from the roads.

Speaking at the Truckload Carriers Association's Bridging Border Barriers event in Toronto Nov. 19, David Heller, senior vice-president, government affairs and safety, said such a capacity crunch could materialize over the next year, putting upward pressure on rates.

The U.S. English Language Proficiency requirements, now being enforced as an out-of-service violation, could sideline 3.8% of the U.S. driving population, or 136,000 drivers, Heller said. Add to that, another 194,000 drivers are thought to be carrying non-domiciled CDLs, or commercial driver's licences they received from various states despite not being a legal resident. Those licences have a two-year expiration period and are expected to not be renewed, removing another nearly 200,000 truck drivers from U.S. highways (this is currently being challenged in a U.S. appeals court).

And then there's the possibility the Trump administration allows hair follicle drug testing that would greatly boost the number of drivers who land on the FMCSA Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse, where more than 150,000 trucking careers have already gone to die.

It's a good news/bad news story for the trucking industry. Capacity needs to leave the industry in order for it to recover. Certainly, a demand-based recovery would be preferred. But three years into this downturn, you take what you can get, and if capacity must be driven out with a sledgehammer through regulatory actions with the added result of improving road safety while restoring some level of prosperity, you'd be a fool to look that gift horse in the mouth.

Regardless of who's wielding the sledgehammer.

— James Menzies, editorial director, Today's Trucking and trucknews.com

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READER SURVEY

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Equipment Buying Trends

As the freight recession is approaching its fourth year, tariffs and shifting emissions regulations are reshaping fleets' 2026 equipment plans, according to trucknews.com's annual Equipment Buying Trends Survey. Read more

Seventy-five per cent of respondents said tariffs are affecting their truck and trailer purchasing plans for next year. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of fleets expect tariffs to add more than $5,000 per Class 8 truck, with another 26% anticipating increases between $3,000 and $5,000.

With U.S. President Donald Trump's 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts, and parts and components built outside the U.S. also tariffed, 58% of fleets said tariff policies will influence the brand of trucks and trailers they'll order.

Nearly 70% also said uncertainty surrounding emissions regulations will also affect 2026 purchases. However, 92% do not plan to acquire alternative-fueled vehicles next year. Of those that will, preferences are split between battery-electric and natural gas, with slightly lower interest in hydrogen. Considering these economic headwinds, responding fleets expect to replace an average of just 13% of their tractors and 8% of their trailers in 2026. Nearly three-quarters (72%) said they adjusted 2025 capital investments due to weak freight demand – with 60% holding onto older equipment longer, one-third downsizing, and others changing brands, vendors, or repurposing trucks.

Parts and labor costs are another concern, as 80% expect increases, 18% foresee no change, leaving only an optimistic 2% believing the prices would drop. On average, fleets outsource 38% of their maintenance work, reflecting a balance between in-house and third-party maintenance strategies.

— By Krystyna Shchedrina

What best describes your fleet's primary activities?

Regional 30%

Longhaul 29%

Construction/Vocational 21%

Local P&D/Final Mile 4%

Private 15%

How many trucks or tractors does your fleet operate?

1-4 32%

5-9 12%

10-24 17%

25-99 23%

100-499 5%

500+ 10%

How many trailers does your fleet operate?

1-4 32%

5-9 12%

10-24 7%

25-99 23%

100-499 5%

500+ 10%

What is the average age of your tractor fleet?

What is the average age of your trailer fleet?

Are tariffs affecting your equipment buying plans for 2026?

YES 75%

NO 25%

What percentage of your truck/tractor fleet are you planning to replace in 2026?

13%

What percentage of your trailer fleet are you planning to replace in 2026?

How much do you anticipate tariffs will add to the cost of a Class 8 truck?

$0-$1,000 4%

$1,001-$3,000 6%

$3,001-$5,000 21%

$5,001+ 69%

Will the cost of the tariffs influence the brand of truck or trailer you order?

YES 58%

NO 42%

How has your company responded to the lengthy freight downturn when it comes to equipment?
(Select all that apply)

Extended equipment life 60%

Downsized the fleet 34%

Parked/repurposed trucks 29%

No changes have been made 26%

Changed brands/vendors 17%

Reduced maintenance spend 16%

Will changes to emissions regulations affect your buying plans for 2026?

YES 8%

NO 92%

Do you anticipate parts and labor rates in 2026 to:

Increase 80%

Stay the same 18%

Decrease 2%

Are you considering purchasing any alternative-fueled vehicles in 2026?

YES 8%

NO 92%

If you selected Yes to the previous question, what types of alternative fuels are you most likely to invest in?

Natural gas 36%

Battery-electric 36%

Hydrogen fuel-cell-electric 21%

Propane 0%

Hybrid 0%

Have you ordered truck and/or trailer parts online in the past year?

YES 58%

NO 42%

Approximately what percentage of your maintenance activities are outsourced?

To dealer 75%

To independents 25%

Did market conditions cause you to alter your equipment capital investments in 2025?

YES 72%

NO 28%

Today's Trucking Pulse Surveys are conducted once per month, covering a variety of industry issues. Questions are distributed through email and social media channels. Responses rounded up to nearest percentage. Totals may not add up to 100%.

U.S. Spot Market Rates & Loads

Modest improvement in store for U.S. spot market rates

The spot market in 2025 has been defined by steadier footing and disciplined operations. After several years of soft demand and elevated capacity, the market finally showed signs of stabilizing. Average van and reefer rates held near $1.95 and $2.36 per mile (all figures USD), while flatbed performed slightly better at $2.43. Volumes have remained consistent, suggesting that supply and demand are moving back into alignment rather than working against each other. Read more

Much of this year's resilience can be attributed to a more rational carrier base. Many small operators that entered during the pandemic-era boom have since exited, leaving behind fleets that are more efficient and financially cautious. On the demand side, freight activity has mirrored a slow but steady economy with measured consumer spending, consistent construction activity, and moderate manufacturing output.

Truckstop data points to a market that has found its floor. The next phase will likely bring gradual improvement rather than a rapid rebound. As capacity continues to tighten and freight demand begins to expand in the second half of 2026, spot rates are expected to trend modestly higher.

After an extended period of correction, 2025 marked a turning point. The year brought stability built on efficiency, experience, and better data-driven decisions. For many brokers and carriers, it feels less like recovery and more like a return to a sustainable rhythm of business.

— Todd Waldron, vice-president, carrier experience, truckstop.com

U.S. Spot Market Rates chart showing Dry Van, Reefer, and Flatbed rates

U.S. Spot Market Loads chart showing Dry Van, Reefer, and Flatbed loads

Canadian Spot Market

Volatile Canadian spot market to give way to steadier 2026

The Canadian spot market in 2025 opened strong, cooled through mid-year, and is entering the final months with steady momentum. We saw truck capacity at its most limited in the first quarter, as demand pulled forward ahead of early March tariff changes. The truck-to-load ratio dipped to about 1.04 in February before loosening quickly in April. Read more

Through mid-year, volumes softened further, and August marked the demand low: postings fell 14% from July while the truck-to-load ratio rose to 4.20, with a surplus of trucks chasing fewer loads.

Throughout the year, cross-border freight remained the backbone of activity, with outbounds from Canada to the U.S. accounting for about two-thirds of total postings. On the equipment side, dry vans represented approximately 55% of postings, and reefers followed at roughly 24%, a steady mix through the year.

Entering the fall season, momentum turned in September and carried into October, with load postings climbing and the truck-to-load ratio easing from the late summer. In September, postings rose 23% from August, and the ratio improved to 3.44.

October extended the trend as the ratio tightened to 3.06. Domestic lanes also regained some traction, and outbound Canada to the U.S. continued to account for about two-thirds of activity.

Looking towards 2026, we anticipate a slow recovery and market stabilization. Spot activity is likely to grow modestly, led by core cross-border corridors and steady van and reefer freight.

Truck capacity is expected to tighten slightly compared to 2025, lifting loads per truck and reducing the coverage gaps seen in August. In addition, pricing should also adjust gradually in line with demand and capacity. Overall, we forecast 2026 to bring steadier conditions and modest, durable growth.

— James Reyes, general manager, Loadlink Technologies

Canadian Spot Market Freight Index

(Source: Loadlink)