The heavy truck market is in chaos, with no end in sight. Truck manufacturers are already coping with tepid orders for Class 8 trucks due to what is likely the longest freight market downturn on record.

That’s manageable. Trucking is a cyclical industry and truck makers are adept at managing the ups and downs of the market. But U.S. government policy is adding layers of complexity to this downturn through tariffs and the revisiting of emissions regulations long in the works.

Let’s begin with tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced 25% tariffs on heavy- and medium-duty trucks built outside the U.S., effective Nov. 1. Parts and components built outside the U.S. were already subject to tariffs.

That created an unintended consequence. Those manufacturers that build all their vehicles in the U.S. said they were disproportionately affected by those tariffs, since they had to pay the fee on all the parts and components sourced outside the U.S. and installed into their trucks on U.S. assembly lines.

Finished vehicles were exempted under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement. Trump’s pivot to slap tariffs on complete vehicles – citing threats to national security as justification for bypassing the trade agreement – addresses the disadvantage U.S. producers felt they were faced with.

Fleets were already reticent to order new equipment given the softness of the freight market. Now, tariffed trucks are being treated like hot potatoes. No one wants to place a sizeable order and pay the 25% tariff when wishy-washy Washington policy could see those tariffs eliminated by social media post at any time. Who can blame buyers for sitting on their wallets?

Dealers face the same dilemma. Who wants to order stock, pay the tariff surcharge, and then be stuck with unmovable inventory in the event the tariffs are lifted? Some finance companies are even unwilling to cover the tariff portion of the invoice.

It’s little wonder that Class 8 orders are so awful. Data from ACT Research presented in September by Volvo Trucks indicates the five-year North American Class 8 order average is 285,000 units. Downturns average 212,000 units. This year’s orders are trending well below even that. The average age of the industry’s rolling stock is creeping up – to 6.4 years for linehaul and 6.8 years for regional haul tractors.

If soft market conditions and tariff uncertainty weren’t enough to kill the market’s appetite for new iron, there’s also uncertainty around emissions standards set to take effect in 2027.

Expected to add about $30,000 to the sticker price of a new Class 8 truck, the EPA27 NOx rule is now under review. The engine manufacturers have already spent years – and billions of dollars – developing their EPA27 product.

Fleets would traditionally pre-buy trucks in advance of the rule to defer the cost of those emissions regulations. Now that the rules are in flux, where’s the incentive to do so? What should’ve been a tailwind for Class 8 order activity has instead become a headwind. If the rule is eliminated altogether, how will the OEMs recover the investments they’ve already made to comply with the rule?

Uncertainty around emissions rules is just another fly in the ointment for truck buyers and sellers. And another valid reason for fleets to sit idly by waiting for clarity.

When clarity does come, we have our own concerns in Canada. Will we forge ahead with more ambitious emissions regulations on our own, or fall in step with the U.S.? The latter would be the appropriate response.

Canada represents too small a market to set our own emissions regulations. Aligning with Europe makes no sense, unless we plan to revert back to cabovers imported from across the pond. That won’t be economically viable, and the size of our market won’t justify the domestic production that would be needed to supply Canadian fleets with competitively priced cabover trucks.

Canada doesn’t even have the infrastructure in place to certify engines to new emissions standards – we count on the U.S. to do that for us. Canadian truck buyers in certain segments are already finding it difficult to spec’ trucks how they’d like to because of how OEMs are forced to manage their GHG credits.

As we await answers in the U.S. on how tariffs and emissions standards – two things completely out of our control — will be managed going forward, the worst thing the Canadian government could do would be to mess with what we can control. It’s not the time to carve our own path forward when it comes to emissions regulations. Whatever comes out of the U.S., our industry is best served by falling in line and accepting the EPA’s decisions.