On Nov. 5, I was glued to the U.S. news channels watching the election unfold. Leading up to the last day of voting, I wasn’t bullish on either candidate.

In the end, I settled on Trump. I believe his pro-business narrative will be a big boost for North American trucking.

Many people I spoke with in our industry shared my disdain for both candidates. But, unlike me, they were rooting for Harris. They thought Trump’s “Buy America” protectionist rhetoric would be a kick in the teeth for Canadian truckers.

Since that fateful day, I’ve been scouring Flipboard for the facts about how Trump’s triumphant return might impact your fleet. Here are a few things to watch.

Tariff trouble

During his campaign sideshow, Trump blabbered on non-stop about a 20% tariff on all imported goods.

No one doubts the potential impact on the Canadian economy. In October, TD Economics reported that full-scale tariff implementation could reduce exports to the U.S. by 5%.

That’s $180 million less freight heading south every day.

But Trump is a world-class exaggerator. In his first term as Prez, he sent shivers down truckers’ spines when he threatened 30% tariffs on auto exports. In the end, it was all blah-blah-blah because nothing changed!

Most experts, including TD Economics, say the more probable scenario is a 10% tariff sometime in 2027. Before then, expect Trump to renegotiate the USMCSA free trade agreement when it’s up for review in 2026.

Massive pivots in trade policy are hard to implement, especially when two countries are so economically integrated. There will be lots of change and unpredictability in the months ahead, but on trade, there’s time to adapt.

Immigration woes

Trump is adamant about stricter immigration policies, sealing U.S. borders, and mass deportations. This is a real concern of mine.

Like in 2017, a clamp-down in the U.S. would send immigrants and asylum seekers scurrying to our porous borders.

It would cause chaos. Overwhelm our systems. More importantly, it would further expose our industry’s driver labor underbelly. The last thing we need is more migrant workers looking for gig economy opportunities in Canada’s trucking industry.

Costs up or down?

We’ve already seen higher tariffs on Chinese imports increase the price of trucks, vehicle parts, and other essential equipment. With the cost of a new rig creeping toward $300,000, the sticker shock is real.

There are other costs to consider.

Trump’s focus on energy production could drive the price of oil down to forty bucks a barrel. Fantastic news when you consider the impact of fuel on a truck’s total operating costs! Or maybe not, if your customers benefit from high oil prices.

U.S. fleet advantage

Discrepancies in environmental regulations between the two countries will add costs to Canadian fleets their U.S. counterparts can avoid. U.S. fleets will also have the advantage of extended corporate tax cuts and can invest some of those profits into cleaner, greener fleet upgrades.

Reducing the carbon footprint may not be Trump’s priority, but it’s still an issue for truck fleets. Customers are increasingly committed to sustainability and prioritize service providers using lower-emission vehicles.

Canadian fleets with electric or low-emission fleets can market themselves to customers on both sides of the border. Being an environmentally friendly transportation provider is more of a competitive advantage than you might have first thought.

Nearshoring opportunity

The Republicans’ focus on “America First” policies will encourage manufacturers to invest in the U.S. or at least closer to home. The demand to move cross-border freight efficiently should benefit Canadian truckers, who have loads of connections and experience.

The ripple effects from new tariffs, increased energy production, and less regulation in the U.S. will create a volatile environment for cross-border trucking. But making stuff on this side of the pond is still good for business!

The biggest threat yet

Bar none, starting Jan. 20, 2025, the biggest threat to Canada is Donald’s disdain for Justin. It will do nothing but invite conflict. I laughed my ass off when Trump called him a “two-faced, left-wing lunatic.” Sad! But so very true!

The good news is Trudeau will be toast on or before next October. Poilievre is our trump card in waiting.