Class 8 orders for August were up slightly, but not to the same extent as they normally are for the month, according to industry forecasters.

ACT Research indicates the sluggish order activity will pressure OEMs to reduce production rates, but orders could get a boost as 2025 order books are opened.

And spot rates saw a healthy bump – especially for refrigerated loads – in the run-up to Labor Day.

Class 8 orders ‘stable’ as OEMs prepare to open ’25 order books

Preliminary Class 8 truck orders ticked up 2% in August, to 13,400 units according to FTR, but were down 16% year over year and below seasonal expectations.

Over the past seven years, August orders typically jumped 20% from July levels, FTR reported. It blames a still-stagnant freight market and full or nearly full order boards as the main factors for the underwhelming performance.

“OEMs this month faced a somewhat mixed market, though overall conditions were stable. The conventional market outperformed the vocational sector, driving most of the month-over-month improvement,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles with FTR.

“Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at a slower pace. We expect further reductions in backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month and continued growth in already record-high inventory levels. Pressure on OEMs to reduce production rates is mounting.”

ACT Research reported 16,400 orders. ACT president and senior analyst Kenny Vieth said, “Historically, August is the last month of weak orders before the OEMs open their books to next year’s orders.”

ACT reported Classes 5-7 orders improved by 1,200 units in August, to 17,300. That’s down 16% year over year.

“In aggregate, August North American Classes 5-8 net orders were generally in line with moderating expectations,” Vieth concluded. “The drivers of those expectations are unchanged: for the Class 8 market, overcapacity in the U.S. tractor market leading to generational lows in for-hire carrier profits and a continued lack of traction in freight rates are a primary concern. For the medium-duty market, the focus is on increasingly overextended U.S. consumers, the impact of high interest rates on discretionary spending, and extremely weak RV demand.”

Spot rates get Labor Day jolt

Truckstop and FTR report that an expected spike in spot market rates ahead of the Labor Day holiday materialized.

The week ended Aug. 30 showed sharp increases in dry van and refrigerated rates. The gains were led by reefer rates, which saw their biggest surge on that week since 2008. Dry van rates were also up, to a lesser extent, but still seeing their biggest weekly jump since International Roadcheck week in May.

Flatbed rates, on the other hand, fell for an eleventh straight week, reaching their lowest levels since July 2020.

Total load postings rose for the first time in five weeks, while truck postings were reduced driving up the Market Demand Index to 57.4, the strongest it has been in four weeks.