Class 8 orders were down month over month and year over year in July, but industry analysts FTR and ACT Research said it’s no big surprise as July is a historically weak month for orders.

Meanwhile, spot market rates were off year-ago levels and aren’t expected to see a bump this week.

July Class 8 orders slip, but no surprise

FTR reported preliminary Class 8 net orders of 12,400 units in July, a 6% decrease from June levels and off 7% year over year.

Orders came in below seasonal expectations and year to date orders are now slightly below replacement demand, averaging 19,400 units a month.

“OEMs experienced a somewhat mixed market this month with vocational markets mildly underperforming conventional, but the overall picture was steady,” said Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles.

“Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at a slowing pace. Year-to-date order levels are just marginally below historical averages and seasonal expectations, and the market fundamentals remain relatively consistent based on these preliminary orders. We expect to see further reductions in backlogs once the final Class 8 market indicators are released later this month as well as continued growth in an already-record level of inventory. The pressure on OEMs to reduce build rates continues to grow.”

ACT Research reported 13,400 orders in July, which is down 13% year over year.

“Class 8 orders remained at directionally and seasonally expected levels in July,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Historically, July is the worst month of the year for Class 8 orders.”

He added, “The headwinds that have been buffeting the U.S. portion of the North American commercial vehicle industry did not diminish through [the first half of 2023] and were arguably a touch worse at the start of the year’s second half. Preliminary results of public TL carriers’ Q2 performance are only encouraging in the sense that the nominal results were up from Q1. To this we add surging and record-level inventories, in both the medium- and heavy-duty markets. Given the above, we have been repeatedly surprised to the upside on order activity. As was the case in June, July’s orders were more closely aligned with data-driven expectations.”

Van rates rise, but lose ground vs. 2023

Truckstop and FTR reported that van and reefer rates climbed in the week ended Aug. 2, but were down from year-ago levels when combined.

Dry van spot rates were slightly positive year over year while reefer rates were down. It’s the first time since 2013 that refrigerated spot rates were down that particular week since 2013.

Flatbed rates fell for the seventh straight week. The week ending today is historically a weak one for spot rates, particularly for dry van and flatbed loads.