As the trucking industry marches toward another set of emissions regulations in 2027, it’s not the reliability or durability of engine technologies that keeps Paul Rosa up at night.

The senior vice-president of procurement and fleet planning with Penske is more concerned about the cost of new equipment, and the impact it may have on smaller fleets that haven’t been refreshing the fleet during the current downturn.

“I’ll say I’m extremely comfortable with what the OEMs are doing because of the years of experience they’ve had with aftertreatment systems,” Rosa said during a panel discussion on EPA27 emission standards held at FTR’s 2024 Transportation Conference. “The bigger issue [that] I think could overshadow concerns about durability is the price of it.”

Krista Toenjes, general manager, on-highway business with Cummins said no drastic changes to the base engine will be required. However, Cummins will add a 48-volt alternator and two heaters to bring the aftertreatment system up to speed faster in compliance with regulations that require NOx control at all temperatures and under all loads.

In addition to imposing new NOx limits of 35 mg, the EPA is also requiring engine makers to assure a useful life of at least 650,000 miles (1.04 million km) and an emissions warranty of 450,000 miles (720,000 km). That will, of course, come at a cost.

Cummins will release a 50-mg NOx engine in 2026, one year ahead of the EPA27 standards, partly because it sees an opportunity to improve fuel economy by 6-7% in the process of meeting the stringent new standards.

“Bringing the X15 forward early is very impactful in a number of ways as a very big customer,” said Penske’s Rosa. “If you pull something forward – in this case the technology – there’s expected to be a cost associated with that. How do we, as a customer, balance the need for equipment and what the cost will be earlier than maybe somebody would have to take it?”

To meet truck demand in the lead-up to 2027, Rosa said all manufacturers will have to be a part of the solution.

“We are making sure we are providing our customers with a product that exceeds TCO [total cost of ownership] expectations,” Toenjes assured.

While it’s not in the engine or truck building business, Brian Kujala, vice-president of business development with Link Manufacturing noted component suppliers too, will be impacted by the regulations. Especially if there’s a meaningful pre-buy leading up to 2027 as fleets seek to defer the higher cost of equipment.

“We don’t want to be stuck with inventory at the end of this,” Kujala said. “It’s about preparedness for us…whenever we have a ramp-up in our industry it creates a lot of uncertainty.”

Fleets to secure build slots early

Fleets will have to secure build slots ahead of the 2027 rules, and dealers will have to buy stock units. And the right stock units, Kujala added. “We’re going to have an allocation problem in 2026,” Kujala predicted. “To build 350,000 trucks [as an industry] is hard to do. We have limited ability to adjust. We are going to be cautious with what we do.”

He noted dealers that stock up may be stuck with inventory they’re unable to move if those trucks are not spec’d to customers’ liking, due to the options-based nature of truck spec’ing.

“That’s going to be a challenge – making sure what comes to the lot is something the dealership can sell and customers want,” Kujala said.

Rosa noted the lead-up to 2027 could bring back memories of the supply chain-related challenges seen during the pandemic. Unused build slots this year could exacerbate the coming shortage, he noted.

“If you wait until 2026, you’re going to be on the outside looking in,” he said of fleets that aren’t planning to secure build slots early. “There’s not enough production slots to handle those customers who didn’t get anything this year…The OEMs will cap production slots in 2025 and 2026 and that’s what keeps me up at night.”

But Toenjes said Cummins learned from the supply chain issues that plagued the industry during Covid-19. “Cummins made significant changes within our manufacturing systems and plants to be able to handle an uptick in demand,” she said.

Labor shortages, inflation

Looking at previous emissions pre-buys, particularly in 2005, Kujapa said, “We have challenges today we didn’t have then,” referring to labor shortages and inflation.

During a keynote speech later in the day, David Carson, senior vice-president of sales and marketing with Daimler Truck North America, echoed those warnings of coming demand that will likely exceed supply ahead of 2027.

He noted in 2022-2023, demand for Classes 6-8 trucks exceeded available supply by 50,000-75,000 units.

“If fleets are saying ‘I need to get ahead of what’s happening in 2027’ for whatever reason, the ultimate issue is if they backed off what was available to them in 2024 by 50%, and in 2025 they do the same thing and in 2026 come in and say ‘I need 130% of what my allocation was in 2024,’ we’re going to have a lot of disappointed customers,” Carson said. “That’s not a Daimler-unique challenge, it’s an industry challenge.”