TORONTO — After a year of speculation that North American heavy-duty truck sales would completely dive after Jan. 1, 2007, the downturn might not slump too far after all — at least that’s what some truck makers and dealers are whispering these days.

Class 8 sales this year — fueled in part by a pre-buy surge from carriers looking to avoid purchasing new, more expensive engines mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) — will reportedly top 300,000 units, perhaps even reaching as high as 320,000 tractors by year’s end. Because many carriers excelled their trade cycles purposefully in advance of the low-emission engines rules taking effect next year, total North American retail sales are expected to slide about 30 percent to between 200,000 and 240,000 units.

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While that’s a significant drop, it’s still a good year when compared to any other average sales period, says Jim Beiderwieden, president of the popular Inland Kenworth franchise based in Burnaby, B.C. “Even with 200,000 trucks, that’s still the sixth or seventh best year [the industry’s] ever had,” he says. “So you have to relate going down in ’07 to the boom in ’06. I think we’ll just be getting back to normal.”

The debate still continues, however, over just how much of an affect pre-buying had on this year’s record sales total. While some market insiders suggest the sales spike is almost all pre-buy driven, others simply chalk it up to solid demand from increasing freight volumes, secure rates, and strong economies on both sides of the 49th.

So says Stu MacKay of Lombard, Ill.-based trucking market research firm MacKay & Co. “Forget the pre-buy, fleets are buying trucks because they need more trucks,” he says, adding that strong vehicle utilization rates he’s calculated imply fleets need the trucks today for working contracts.

On the other hand, New York-based trucking industry analysts at Bear Stearns warn that the ’06 pre-buy is being severely underestimated. In recent communiqués to clients, the firm suggests a large slice of recent months’ sales were for 2007 first quarter delivery — known as a last minute “pre-build,” driven mainly by dealers.

“Either way — a pre-buy or a pre-build — will likely prove disruptive to ’07 production and pricing,” the firm warns. (Read the next online story on ToadysTrucking.com for an up-to-the-minute take on the Pre-buy effect).

It’s true that some dealers who recently filled up the tail end of order books will have ’06 engines in new ’07 truck models available on lots for the first couple months of 2007, Beiderwieden confirms.

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“There may be some buyers that would prefer the known engine to the unknown. As you transition to the new units it might be worthwhile to have some ’06 engines in stock,” he says.

Rod Neufeld of Argus Carriers, a 12-tractor, 50-truck fleet based near Vancouver, says he expects some fleets to hunt down ’06 engines in the New Year. Availability and demand, however, will vary wildly among dealers and customers in each region.

“Some (dealers) bought a ton more than others, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens,” he says. “For us, January and February is the slowest time of the year, so it’s not a good time to buy equipment anyway.”

Neufeld bought two new tractors this year, but says they were completely market-based buys. Overall, most of the issues surrounding the new engines — the $10,000-$12,000 extra sticker price; the ultra-low-sulfur diesel required for the engines; as well as the functionality of the new technology — are things he’s keeping current on, but won’t really impact his buying decisions next year.

“If I need trucks for accounts, then I’m going to buy trucks,” he says. “Do I want to be the guinea pig? Probably not. But someone has to be, and in the end I think it’ll have to be lots of us.

“I would like to think I wouldn’t have to buy trucks for six months or so, but that would indicate I’m not moving doesn’t it? So, we’ll just have to bite the bullet.”

That grassroots attitude is indicative of the majority of Canadian fleets — especially small and medium outfits. While the largest trucklines in the U.S. were the main players in the pre-buy game this year, most average Canadian fleets are either confident in the ’07 engines, or not worried enough to be swayed from scheduled buy-trade cycles, says Cummins Canada General Manager Alasdair McNellan in Toronto.

“The owner-op is the one that’s going to be somewhat affected as far as not having the will to pay out a $10,000 premium for a truck they could have bought this year. But fleets don’t seem to be as concerned because they feel they can pass [the costs] on,” he says.

With the boom now deflated, conventional wisdom suggests that OEMs eager to keep production lines moving will pull out plenty of carrots to wave in front of customers willing to jump behind the wheel of an ’07.

Mike Pennington, marketing director at ArvinMeritor –which, as both an OE and aftermarket commercial vehicle components supplier, has an equal interest in pre-buy and demand-driven sales — says the carriers he’s spoken to are sure they’ll need ’07 trucks eventually. And many are confident that by midyear OEMs will be offering improved pricing, which will help them offset the additional cost of a new truck.

So what does the dealer have to say about his marketing strategy in ’07? Beiderwieden pauses before answering. “I’ll just say, that if you’re looking for an ’07 engine, the best time to buy would be first quarter 2007. That’s when it’ll be price advantageous.”

Happy shopping.