NEW YORK — Preliminary numbers for class 8 show 11,600 new orders in September — down 29 percent year-to-year (vs. down 26% y/y in August), reports the transportation arm of New York market analysts Bear Stearns.

Class 5-7 orders were juts below that mark — 11,200, down 38 percent from the same period in 2006 (down 38% y/y in August). Arguably, says Bear Stearns, class 5-7 orders are a “purer” measure of economically derived demand, given that there was a smaller pre-buy in medium duty trucks in 2006.

“While we think truck demand will outstrip freight growth in ’08-’09 as fleets pre-buy ahead of the next emissions deadline … it’s clearer to us that emissions laws are a competitive advantage to the strongest suppliers,” says the firm.

But while we’re optimistic about 2008-09, we acknowledge that investors may not revisit these names until sometime in the first part of 2008, given the lack of a near-term catalyst (orders or freight).”