NEW YORK — Commercial truck dealer lots have been expectedly quiet as the manufacturing industry awaits the end of the ’07 downturn. But according to a leading transportation market analyst firm, there are some signs that orders for new-model, EPA-mandated clean engines will start picking up as early as the end of this year or first quarter ’08.

New York-based bear Stearns says some dealers, in the U.S. at least, are starting to see a noticeable rise in quote activity. One Midwest franchise told the firm that all of his customers suggest that they will be back in the market in the next six months or so and that many larger customers have started asking for two-year pricing structures for new trucks and used truck trade-ins.

The sales manager, whom Bears Stearns described as “cautiously optimistic,” noted he’s been aggressive on pricing recently in effort to try and clear out some of his excess inventory.

Although the contact said that his new and used truck sales have been down roughly 20 to 40 percent from ’06, in recent weeks he’s seen demand rebound to the point where he’s begun to actually “make a dent in all this inventory.”

While it’s tough to gauge at this point whether the renewed activity is a result of fleets becoming more comfortable with the more expensive ’07 technology or whether some pre-buying for extremely tough 2010 emission rules has begun earlier than expected, the contact said that most of his customers are suggesting they might delay their pre-buying plans because of weakness in freight.

Still, there’s little doubt that by the latter half of next year and 2009, many of the class 8 sales will be a result of advanced purchases.

“While the transition to the new 2007 engines is going smoother than many in the industry expected most fleets can’t afford to take a chance on the 2010 transition going as smooth,” the dealer said.