NEW YORK — Truckmakers are starting to realize that class 8 trucks sales could get worse in early 2008 before getting better, says a tier-one supplier to truck OEMs.

Speaking to New-York based transportation market analysts at Bear Stearns, the supplier said he was forecasting Class 8 builds of only 200,000 in 2008, based on the level of demand he was seeing from customers for his parts. Those estimates, he added, are very “back-end loaded” suggesting that there is upside to his if the economy should strengthen throughout the year.

While there’s been an encouraging jump in truck demand
this fall, industry sources still predict a prolonged downturn.

Furthermore, Bear Stearns explains, the source believes many truck manufacturers are just now facing the reality that demand will not pick up until mid-2008. Many of his customers, he continues, expected to see a significant ramp up in demand in late 2007, which has not materialized.

While there was an “encouraging” spike in orders this past October, compared to previous months, the supplier cautioned that the boost was mainly a result of large orders from one or two fleets and may not represent a true upturn in overall industry demand.

Meanwhile, a large truck dealer in the U.S. tells Bear Stearns that more capacity will come out of the industry as smaller trucking firms are forced to exit the market due to a weakened economy and higher operating costs.

Specifically, the contact said that he’s heard of 450 or so trucking companies, with five or more trucks, going bankrupt this year and more closures are imminent in the coming months.

Still, while the length, and depth, of the downturn in the U.S. has surprised him, the dealer still believes that 2009 will shape up to be a good year for heavy-duty truck demand.