The analysts at ACT Research are losing confidence that lingering supply chain issues will subside enough to enable manufacturers to ramp up commercial truck production anytime soon.

In its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT reports OEMs may not be able to fully meet customer demand this, or even next, year.

“Recent commentary from leaders in the semiconductor industry point to a more cautious outlook for longer. ASML, a key supplier of semiconductor production equipment, recently called out a ‘significant shortage of semiconductor manufacturing capacity this year and next,’” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst in a related release. “In light of this and other industry commentary, we believe lower-for-longer chip availability is likely to restrain the industry’s ability to meet otherwise strong customer demand.”

Vieth said other downside risks remain as well.

“Moreover, about half of the global supply of neon, critical for chipmaking, is concentrated in Odessa, Ukraine, where production has been down since February. The gases that were purified in Ukraine were generated by Russian steel manufacturers. A scramble to re-source is on and inventories are limited.”

However, ACT says demand for new trucks remains high. “Carrier profitability is robust, we expect any recession to be shallow and short-lived at this point, and our Class 8 models are indicating pent-up demand, as well as pre-buying potential in advance of CARB’s costly Clean Truck mandate.”

Truck manufacturers have been unable to keep up with customer demand due to a shortage of microchips and other vital components. They have reduced order intake to manage customer expectations and backlogs.