Even the most enthusiastic advocates for decarbonizing the trucking industry acknowledged there are many challenges in doing so.

“We believe long-term, in the future goods will be moved using Class 8 tractor-trailers with these zero-emission solutions. But it’s going to take a while,” said Mike Roeth, executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE).

He was speaking as part of a panel at FTR’s Transportation Conference this week. “We believe that’s the long-term future, but it’s going to be messy to get there. We see messiness as not a horrible thing, just a reality of what our future is going to look like.”

The so-called “messy middle” will involve a variety of lower-emission fuels and technologies until the widespread adoption of zero-emission technologies – such as battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell-electric – trucks can be more easily and cost-effectively deployed.

Some of these transitional technologies could include natural gas, renewable natural gas, hydrogen internal combustion engines and others.

Brett Wilson, director of partnerships, EV and advance vehicle technology with Ryder System, admitted the cost of converting to electric vehicles remains too high.

“We are at a space in transport and mobility that our industry and world hasn’t seen in 100 years,” he said of the transition from diesel to zero-emission transport. “We are now having to ask customers to consider every phase of their entire operations. When’s the last time you had to buy a truck and build a fueling station? We’re at that level.”

The good news, however, is that there are enough zero-emission trucks on the roads to begin collecting meaningful data on the conversion, Wilson said. Ryder this year put out a paper (www.ryder.com/evtct) that demonstrated a Class 6 electric straight truck has a total cost of ownership of about 20% more than operating a similarly spec’d diesel, if incentives are not involved.

In order to get cost parity the industry must see a breakthrough in battery technology, a reduction in EV cost, and expanded and reliable charging infrastructure, Wilson said.

Modal shift an easier option

Greer Woodruff, senior vice-president of safety, sustainability and maintenance at J.B. Hunt, was equally realistic in his assessment of the conversion to zero-emission vehicles.

“We all want clean water and clean air to breathe,” he said. “ZEVs are going to find their right place in the supply chain but there are clear barriers. The primary barrier to day is ZEVs are not economically viable. What we find is most customers are not willing to pay higher transportation costs to reduce their carbon footprint.”

Woodruff noted the cost of the trucks themselves are 2.5 to three times more than a diesel. Charging is inefficient and must be done about four times more than a diesel fill-up. Range is compromised by battery weight, which also eats into payload. And today, in most applications, more electric trucks would be required to do the same amount of work as a single diesel-fueled truck.

He noted there are other opportunities to lessen trucking’s environmental impact that can be put in place with immediate benefit.

“We still believe there are lots of opportunities to see modal conversion,” he said, noting J.B. Hunt believes 7-11 million truckloads could be easily converted to intermodal today, reducing carbon intensity by 65% at a lower cost than over-the-road transport.

NACFE’s Roeth agreed electric trucks should be deployed in applications that make sense; generally running short routes and returning frequently to the depot for charging. He cited food and beverage as a good candidate.

And he said the technology is advancing quickly, noting NACFE’s first electric Run on Less demonstration in 2021 showcased electric trucks with 170 miles (272 kms) and by the time it ran its second Run on Less using electric trucks just two years later, the same manufacturers were demonstrating 250 miles (400 km) of range.

“The batteries today in our trucks are different than the batteries of two years ago,” pointed out Ryan Clayton, global head of sales for zero-emission truck maker Nikola.

Adopt ZEVs now, or later?

Which begs the question, will fleets be better served converting to electric trucks today, or in the future when the technology is more mature?

Currently, the residual value of electric trucks is unknown, Woodruff pointed out, and the cost too high. He compared it to a bigscreen smart TV, which used to cost thousands of dollars and now can be had for just a couple hundred. And Clayton noted there are cost savings to be had when it comes to maintenance, as many repairs can be done remotely via software update.

“Don’t try to go it alone,” Wilson suggested, adding decisions around charging requirements should be reached before even thinking about buying the truck itself.

“People tend to focus on the truck first, then they have trucks sitting for six months waiting for trenching,” he said.

“Just dive in,” suggested Roeth. “If you have yard tractors, go buy an electric yard tractor. You’re probably not going to be disappointed in that. Parts vans. Pickup trucks. Just dive in and learn.”