NEW YORK — Despite North American truck sales yielding now that the pre-buy is all but over, trailer production seems to be holding somewhat steady.

This according to transportation research arm of Bear Stearns, one of the most respected market analyst firms in the U.S.

According to the company after an interview with a large tier-2 brake supplier, although there has been some weakness in trailer orders, it doesn’t look as if there’s any real weakness in demand from trailer OEMs.

If trailer demand were truly weakening, it would be first
noticed in higher cancellations, says Bear Stearns

Net orders for trailers were down 37 percent year-to-year and 19 percent y/y in September and October, respectively, says Bear Stearns. “While we’re not highly concerned with end market fundamentals yet, our sense is that if demand were truly weakening, we would first see it in higher cancellations followed by slowing factory sales. Our sense is that, with all the major dry van OEMs seeking price increases, the fleets are starting to dribble out orders rather than place their usual full-year orders,” according to the firm.

In addition to trailer orders, the industry is closely monitoring the outcome of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) notice of proposed rulemaking related to heavy truck stopping distances.

NHTSA is proposing a major reduction in the current required stopping distance for an empty truck-trailer of 335 feet at 60 mph by 20 to 30 percent. Depending on the percent reduction, the industry could see a significant shift in demand from drum brakes to air disc brakes, says Bear Stearns. It may be possible, however, to meet the new standard with drum brake technology if the stopping percentage is low enough.

According to Bear Stearns’ source, many in the industry believe that the greater the percent reduction in stopping distances, the more likely fleets will choose disc brakes specs.

Such a shift in could be a “double whammy” to drum brake makers since, if disc brakes become the industry standard on tractors, then OEMs may begin to put disc brakes on trailers as well to prevent having an “underbraked” trailer.