Better days ahead. Way ahead, forecast says

ARLINGTON, Va. — Never mind CSA 2010, how about 2021?

Because that’s how far into the future the American Trucking Associations (ATA) predict the well being of this industry.

And things look pretty swell. According to the new study, freight tonnage in North America will grow by a full 25 percent.

The ATA study, which was undertaken by IHS Global Insight and Martin Labbe Associates, shows that while tonnage will grow by 25 percent, freight revenue will balloon by a full 69 percent.

What’s more, trucking can expect its share of total tonnage to increased from 68 percent in 2009, to 70.7 percent 11 years from now.

While that looks great onscreen, in 2009, trucks hauled 81.9 percent of the freight, so the recession took a serious bite out of trucking’s share of the freight business. The freight business as a whole shrunk a walloping 12.5 percent in ’09.)

Here’s what ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello has to say about the survey results: "All modes of freight transportation were impacted by the ‘Great Recession,’ but I’m growing more optimistic about the long-term outlook.

"There are certainly some risks, but I think better days do lie ahead for the freight hauling business."

The ATA outlook also includes information about rail domestic water, pipeline and domestic air.

Railroads’ share will slip from 14.7 to 14.1 percent by 2021, (Yay!) while air cargo is estimated to grow from 11.7 million tons in 2009 to 18.4 million tons in 2021. (Boo!) Water and pipeline freight are also predicted to grow slightly.

The study says consumer spending will expand only 2.5 percent per year and the U.S. unemployment rate will decline, but likely remain at 6.7-percent, even as late 2015.

The complete ATA U.S. Transportation Forecast to 2021 can be yours, at www.atabusinesssolutions.com


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