Carriers, shippers and brokers should prepare for a surge in criminal activity over the Thanksgiving period in the United States, Verisk’s CargoNet warns, citing a sharp rise in cargo theft incidents over the past several years.

Last year, the organization recorded 79 cargo theft incidents during the holiday period from the Tuesday before U.S. Thanksgiving through the Monday after. This represents a 64.58% increase compared to 2023’s 48 incidents — in line with year-over-year increase patterns observed since 2021, when only 29 incidents were recorded during the holiday period.

CargoNet says that criminal groups exploit holiday-related shipment surges and reduced staffing, with activity typically intensifying through Q4 and reaching its peak in December, which is expected to continue through the 2025 season.

Food and beverage shipments represent the highest theft risk during the Thanksgiving period, with 31 incidents recorded in the 2024 analysis. The category is followed by household goods, electronics, vehicles and accessories — on trend with thieves developing a taste for high-value loads over the past several years. Historical data shows criminals consistently target high-value items, including computers, alcoholic beverages, and automobile tires, during the holiday period. 

But new trends are emerging this year, CargoNet says, warning that criminal groups have also increasingly targeted truckload quantities of copper, enterprise server hardware and nutritional supplements throughout 2025. Multi-million-dollar thefts of computer components used by AI firms and in cryptocurrency mining are common, leading to 2025’s average shipment value increasing to $278,797, and recorded loss value exceeding $318 million.

California continues to be the most targeted state nationwide, a trend that persists during the Thanksgiving period. Last year, CargoNet recorded 67 incidents in the state. Meanwhile, the totals in Illinois and Texas were at 27 and 22 incidents, respectively. Florida and Georgia round out the top 5 with 15 and 11 incidents.

Several counties remain persistent hotspots, including San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties in California, Cook County in Illinois, and Dallas County, Texas.

The New York City metropolitan area has also become a major hub for sophisticated shipment misdirection schemes, which is ‘particularly concerning,’ according to CargoNet vice president of operations Keith Lewis.

“Criminal organizations have transformed this region into a sophisticated operation hub for shipment misdirection and fraud,” he said in a news release. “Combined with the persistent threats in California, Illinois, and Texas, the geographic spread of organized cargo theft requires a coordinated, industry-wide security response during the Thanksgiving period and beyond.”