"It becomes simple math," adds Smith. "If you have a pretty big investment on a retail system, you really need to have some volume there to justify putting the pumps in."

But what if new-truck demand spikes faster in 2011 than economists have been forecasting? Everett Seymoure of TRP Aftermarket Parts (which markets CleanBlue DEF) is confident that manufacturers and their suppliers will be ready for any sudden market changes.

"It’s a cyclical industry, not just for DEF but for everything we sell. I don’t think we’re going to be surprised. We’re pretty close to the OEM side of the business so we know where sales are going."
www.trpparts.com

STICKER SHOCK

Something else that still varies widely: Pricing. It was previously suggested that DEF should pace diesel prices on a per-gallon basis. Typically, though, a gallon jug in Canada is between $6 and $10, but can be much higher depending on the remoteness of the area.

Two-and-a-half-gallon jugs have reportedly been spotted for as much as $30. (The good news is that DEF is dosed at about two or three gallons for every 100 gallons of diesel, so a 13-gallon DEF tank is good to go for about 3,000 to 3,600 miles per fill-up).

"You have a lot of dynamics going on and prices are driven by a lot of factors on certain accounts," says Smith.

Unlike highway diesel, the price of urea is tied directly to the natural gas market and production capacity is also linked to what happens in the fertilizer industry. Regionality and the concentration of competition also play huge roles in the retail price.

"This can’t be like diesel fuel or gasoline because there’s no pipeline," he says. "You have to look at where it’s manufactured and the cost and logistics to move it around — especially true in Canada."

Still, as volumes really kick in over the next 18 months, Smith expects factors like raw material costs, transportation, and delivery "begin to stack up and prices will (continue) to stabilize in most areas."

WHAT ABOUT …

… all that talk about DEF gelling in minus-11°C climates or going bad if left too long in extreme heat? As the latter goes, most observers say that prolonged storage in direct sunlight could degrade the product, but overall, temporary exposure to temperatures as high as 40C shouldn’t have any effect.

Not many SCR trucks have yet faced a full Winnipeg winter, but there haven’t been any reports that the heating systems for the DEF tank aren’t doing their job. If DEF is frozen at start up, normal operation of the truck won’t be affected. NOX output isn’t a factor at this point, because the emission is produced at high combustion temperatures, anyway.

There are no available additives to ­prevent freezing in order to maintain the API-certified blend of exactly 33-percent urea concentration. (We’re told that suppliers are testing a premium DEF that potentially has a lower freeze point).

On that note, the quality of DEF has also been called into question.

But Robert Arbasetti, COO of the DEF distributor Prime Lube, which distributes the BlueSky DEF throughout the Eastern Seaboard and into Ontario and Quebec says, basically, most brands are alike and they’re all equally good.

"As long as you choose a quality DEF product that meets API and ISO 22241 certification standards, you’re fine." As for competition among DEF producers, Arbasetti says manufacturers will have to distinguish themselves on their delivery and service models, as opposed to variations in the product itself.

Some critics have suggested that drivers would try to defeat the DEF requirement with so-called diluted "bathtub" DEF or plain water. NOx sensors at the exhaust make this somewhat of a moot point, as the engine would go into a systematic derate if this was attempted.

Despite the critics’ suggestion that drivers shouldn’t be in a position to affect the emissions solution, an engine derate isn’t an experience drivers will want to repeat to save a few bucks a month.

Especially when filling up with DEF is as basic as topping up your windshield washer fluid.

SIDEBAR

FITTING IN: New 2010 drivetrain systems may require some changes to how vocational trucks are spec’ed and add a few purchasing considerations for buyers.

For dump trucks and other vocational vehicles, truck frame space is critical, but the DEF tank shouldn’t be much of a dilemma as it’ll commonly be tucked in over or closely behind the fuel tank, with very little hanging behind back of cab. Most OEMs offer a variety of placement options.

Brian Lindgren, director of vocational sales for Kenworth Truck, suggests that an aftertreatment catalyst using copper zeolite is much more efficient than iron zeolite at reducing NOx at normal engine operating temperatures and could provide a fuel economy improvement.

Weight, though, could be an issue. The tank itself isn’t all that heavy, but with bracketry, lines and the heater it might add a couple hundred pounds, not counting the DEF.

Lindgren recommends customers look for weight savings in aluminum cross-members and wheels to mitigate some of that added weight.

"Making sure you don’t have more wheelbase than you need" for your application and considering "partial insert length instead of a full insert" could also help, he tells Today’s Trucking.

Overall, customers should be mindful of where the exhaust aftertreatment parts are located.

"Some folks might root the exhaust pretty low in a couple of spots between the turbocharger and the DPF." Making sure parts don’t get dragged through mud or gravel will save maintenance money, he says.