TORONTO — There are major changes afoot in trucking that include the volume, mix, trajectory and type of freight moving.

According to a Business Pulse e-Survey, conducted by the Ontario Trucking Association in October with 90 carrier members, the struggling U.S. economy and financial crisis has had a significant impact on capacity and the balance of freight for Canadian carriers. (the survey corresponded with the recent troubles on Wall Street in early October).

Thirty five percent of respondents said they were "pessimistic" about the overall outlook of the industry, while 41 percent said they were "unsure" of what the future holds. Only 24 percent indicated they any confidence going forward.

Very few carriers said that volumes were improving either in Canada or to the U.S. compared to three months ago. About 65 percent said volumes were "the same" inter-provincially while 25 percent said shipments improved within Canada.

Few carriers have confidence things will improve in the next
six months, but beyond that we should see less capacity.

For southbound lanes, the view was more circumspect, with only 18 percent saying volumes had improved. About 50 percent said they were worse.

It was a split decision for northbound backhauls (or headhauls, depending on how you look at it these days). About 28 percent said volumes were improving and 24 percent indicating they were decreasing.

As for freight rates over the next six months, 43 and 27 percent expect more price softness for southbound and inter-provincial lanes, respectively.

Worse, according to the survey, cash flow is increasingly threatened as customers are taking longer to pay freight bills. About 45 percent of respondents said receivables are being delayed compared to a year ago.

At the same time, access to credit is tightening (65 percent) — most likely as a result of the blowback from banks and credit markets collapsing south of the border. (Be sure to check out the cover story in the November issue of Today’s Trucking for a detailed analysis on this issue).

On the plus side, only 10 percent of the respondents’ customers are refusing to pay a reasonable fuel surcharge.

"The survey results are consistent with what we see is going on in the overall Ontario economy," says OTA President David Bradley. "The combination of factors that have been impacting upon the structure and growth of the Ontario economy, such as the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, increasing oil costs, economic and financial problems in the US, ongoing woes in the North American automotive manufacturing sector, a thickening of the US border and changes in global supply changes, are all reflected in current market conditions and carriers’ outlooks for the foreseeable future."

But while there’s a lot of concern in the industry, there are also indications that capacity will continue to adjust and be brought more in-line with demand for transportation service, adds Bradley.

The survey indicates as much. Over 50 percent of carriers expect capacity to exit the market over the next six months as carriers go out of business and the driver shortage worsens. Only 18 percent think we’ll see more slack capacity.

"Trucks are not going to go away; they will remain the preferred mode of freight transportation regardless of what is happening in the broader economy. Obviously, however, a healthy trucking industry requires a healthy economy and 2009 is shaping up to be more of a challenge than 2008," Bradley said.