What if Mexican truckers gained a foothold in the North American trucking market? If you’re still thinking this is a pretty far-fetched idea, you may want to reconsider. Under the terms of our beloved NAFTA agreement, Mexican trucks could have equal access to any and all international freight on the continent — including Canadian loads bound for the U.S. and vice versa.

There’s not much standing in the way of an influx of Mexican trucks right at the moment, except for the determined lobbying of a few groups that see the inherent risk of such a move.

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) supports the opening of the American southern border to Mexican carriers, calling it “a step toward efficiency.” ATA is thinking in terms of the movement of goods between the U.S. and Mexico. They’re probably not terribly concerned with what might happen on their northern border.

Many large U.S. carriers have vested interests in Mexican carriers, so it’s easy to see where some ATA members could see substantial reductions in operating costs by using Mexican carriers and drivers to move freight back and forth across that border. That ATA would support this plan is a no-brainer.

Critics of the plan say that safety on American roads would be compromised by an influx of Mexican trucks. They claim that proper safeguards are not in place, that Mexican carriers have not been properly audited by U.S. officials, that Mexican drivers are generally not as qualified as U.S. and Canadian drivers, and that no mechanism exists to rate Mexican carriers on a safety scale on par with ­current American and Canadian standards.

Mexican truckers will soon be able to cross this border line

The U.S. DOT says not to worry, they’ve got it all under control. It’s interesting to read some of the quotes from U.S. DOT officials. They use words like “we expect,” and “it should work like this.” They don’t sound terribly sure of themselves, yet they’re asking everyone in that country — and by extension, Canada — to have faith in the plan they’re proposing.

Under the terms of what is being called a limited one-year demonstration project, up to 100 Mexican trucking companies will be allowed to operate no more than 1,000 trucks in long-haul service on U.S. soil. One hundred American carriers are to be granted reciprocal privileges in Mexico.

Let’s give the Mexicans the benefit of the doubt as far as safety is concerned. They’ll be required to comply with CFR 49, just like all American and Canadian carriers currently do, but I haven’t seen anything yet that speaks to rates or terms of carriage, etc.

One thousand trucks operating at rock-bottom rates could have destabilizing effects on existing markets in a lot less than a year’s time.

Should they gain a foothold in, say, the marine container ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, or Seattle, how long might it be until they contemplate expanding into Vancouver?

If, as is suggested by the opponents of this measure, Mexican drivers are earning a fraction of a typical American or Canadian wage, the propensity for a little rate ­cutting is certainly there. As are tidy profits flowing back to the U.S. parent companies of the discount Mexican carriers.

There are no Mexican carriers with Canadian filings right now, but there has been at least one Mexican truck “discovered” in this country. How it got here, we’re still not sure, but it did. Under the terms of NAFTA, there’s nothing to stop Mexicans carriers from registering to do business in Canada. And under those same terms, there’s nothing to stop Mexican carriers from engaging in international trade.

We’re now experiencing a decline on export volumes because of the value of the dollar — among other things. So if Canadian carriers are charging a premium to get American freight into Canada because of the scarcity of southbound freight, how good is a Mexican carrier going to look to a Canadian importer?

The savings of course are most likely to come from labor costs. Mexican drivers work for next to nothing, we’re told. Even two or three times next-to-nothing is going to look like a king’s ransom to a Mexican driver, while it won’t even cover the gas to get a Canadian driver’s pay cheque to the bank.

Even if Mexican carriers don’t come a-knocking directly on our customers’ doors, they’ll be bargaining for a share of the miles and tonnage moved through places like Kansas City’s SmartPort — a proposed huge intercontinental trans- — shipping point for goods moving between Canada, the U.S., Mexico, and the rest of the world.

This potential impact on Canadian drivers of Mexican carriers operating with free reign in the U.S. is staggering.