The combination of greater regulatory certainty and tightening capacity will deliver modest gains to the trucking sector in 2026, according to analysts. 

“We do expect the beginning of a freight recovery by around mid-year,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. FTR’s outlook for total truck loadings for the full year is essentially flat from 2025, but some freight momentum is expected as 2026 progresses. 

FTR projects truckload contract rates to inch up 2.6% in 2026, following a 1.2% upturn in 2025, and truckload spot rates will rise 3.6%. While rates are above where they were two years ago, Vise called the environment a “marginless recovery,” and for many carriers, the gains are “not enough to cover a lot of the obligations that they have.” 

FTR cautious on truck orders despite strong December 

FTR reported that preliminary North American Class 8 truck orders surged 21% in December from a year earlier to 42,200 units. That was the highest level since October 2022 and 108% higher than the previous month. 

The December figure was a positive development, but much of it was just catch-up after a very difficult 2025, according to Eric Starks, FTR’s chairman. Orders were well below year-ago levels in each of the first 11 months of the year. 

“December was nice to see, but I’m not going to hang my hat on that,” Starks said. Vise credited the strong December report to improved policy visibility on tariffs and 2027 emissions regulations. 

ELP violations having limited effect on capacity 

Vise said that while more than 11,000 truck drivers have received out-of-service violations for failing English language proficiency standards, he does not see it having a significant impact on truck capacity. 

Vise said that, based on ramped-up enforcement in 2025, the annualized rate of ELP out-of-service violations would be 24,000, representing less than 1% of total U.S. trucking capacity. He also noted that ELP violations do not permanently disqualify the driver. 

“Twenty-four thousand sounds like a big number, but that’s really not a market-changing number,” Vise said. 

However, stricter driver eligibility and language requirements are tightening available capacity, particularly in California and the Southeast, according to a report from U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics.

Although truck availability had not yet caused a dramatic spike in rates, it could set the stage for rapid increases if freight demand rebounds in 2026, the report said.