Recessionary storm hit hard, but passed quickly: Statscan

OTTAWA — Despite what some may think, the recent recession in Canada wasn’t nearly as severe as the last two in the early ’80s and ’90s, but when the economy first dipped in 2008, it cratered sharper than any downturn since the Great Depression.

In a comparative study released this week, Stats Canada reported that by most conventional measures (real gross domestic product, employment or hours worked) the 2008-2009 recession was relatively mild compared to the ones in 1981-1982 and 1990-1992.

In fact, the true recession may have only lasted about seven months, much shorter than any other modern downturn.

"However, this outcome does not capture the significant impacts stemming from the global financial crisis," states the report. "Indeed, both output and employment in the early stages of the downturn contracted at the fastest rate of any post-war recession."

Exports, specifically, plunged 30 percent in less than six months, and ultimately fell nearly 40 percent before growth resumed (this compared to a drop of just 10% for exports at the start of the recessions in 1981 and 1990).

And while the last decline was much less pronounced than in other major industrialized countries – and our recovery quicker and more complete – it set a record for the most months (eight) of uninterrupted decline.

Instead, the contraction that occurred between 1981-1982 had the largest peak-to-trough recession, but that period was interspersed with a few months of growth and was followed in 1983 by the sharpest recovery of the three cycles.

As well, the 1990-1992 recession was followed by lingering weakness, implying "more output was lost relative to zero or potential growth during that recession."

"The recovery in 2009-2010 was almost over in the same amount of time as it took for the recession to hit bottom in 1982 and well before the trough in 1992."

The "different speeds of recovery," then, "show why it is difficult to state categorically that one recession is more severe than another," states the report.

Despite exports and business investment recovering less than half their declines in 2008-09, overall demand has recouped its recession losses, largely a result of the strong recovery of household spending.  


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