TORONTO — Truckers, it seems, are back on Santa’s "nice" list.

After seeing a lump of (rail-hauled) coal attached to the bottom of balance sheets the last few fourth quarters, highway carriers may have noticed the first holiday peak shipping season in several years.

Exactly how big the boost was this year, or whether it’s sustainable has been a much bigger debate throughout the supply chain.

There’s some conflicting data, but for the most part large carriers of consumer goods reported a noticeable uptick in volumes this past fall.

Another good sign: Large big box retailers like Walmart and Costco project significant fourth-quarter year-over-year sales improvements.

That’s not surprising, considering there’s been nowhere to go but up from the miserable 2008 and 2009 seasons (when traditionally strong October truckload volume actually dropped from September). However, at least through early November, volumes reportedly held up reasonably better than they were expected to.

"In the traditional sense, yes, we are getting back to that peak shipping season," Eric Starks, freight trends analyst and president of Indiana-based FTR Associates, tells Today’s Trucking. "Is it huge … and will we go much higher? No, but the [buying] behavior we usually expect heading into the holiday season is back, by and large."

The peak shipping season is probably back for good,
just at a different benchmark than the good ‘ol days

While news that the North American economy is growing — albeit at a snail’s pace — has provided some modest support to consumer confidence, it’s inventory levels that have mostly driven consumer goods transport.

Despite reports earlier this year that the peak season would fizzle out early because of the risk of a summertime shipping vessel shortage and the fear shipments wouldn’t come on time, inventory replenishments didn’t run their course before the fall.

As well, retailers are said to be bringing in more products directly to the store rather than warehousing it so there’s less backup of inventory than during the recessionary seasons.

"In past years, on the consumer side the need to push additional holiday freight wasn’t there because there was enough inventory to meet demand," says Starks. "This year, inventory hit rock bottom levels and while it doesn’t look like [retailers] are willing to increase ­inventory above what we’ve already seen, they’re keeping it at a threshold that if ­people do buy, then you can replace it, which is what is happening."

More recently, though, there have been strong indications that the peak is eroding to wrap up the year. After nine straight months of increased restocking, inventories in the U.S. surpassed sales in October, the Journal of Commerce reported. (Similar available data lags in Canada but a parallel trend is likely here, too).

On the other hand, North American intermodal ­container traffic — a key indicator of consumer goods cargo — was projected to be up another nine percent in November after a 20.3-­percent increase in the third quarter from 2009.

In fact, the continued strength of international container traffic through October — in the face of low auto and housing sales, high unemployment and other less than inspiring macroeconomic indicators — was quite puzzling to several economists that wrote about the issue.

Starks predicts some pullback in the New Year, although the degree also depends heavily on how inventories look after Christmas and how much consumers are willing to dish out for post-holiday deals.

So, is the peak shipping season back for good?

"No doubt, the recession wiped out savings, so as it returns, it returns at a new benchmark and you’re starting at a different level," says Starks. "If incomes go up a little bit, so should discretionary spending and that’s likely to happen in the next couple of years.

"Even if it’s a three to five-percent growth, which is realistic, you’re going to see that peak shift by default because that’s when [retailers] want to take hold of the goods."