COLUMBUS, Ind. — ACT Research has some long-awaited good news for truck manufacturers and dealers.
The industry forecaster has declared that after three straight years of double-digit production declines (including a 40% decline in 2009), that the medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle markets are at the beginning of a three-year period of steady growth.
According to its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, ACT announced that Class 8 production reached a low point of 25,000 units in the second quarter, down 57% compared to the same period a year ago. However, ACT expects quarterly production rates will begin a slow climb in the third quarter.
Year-over-year, production rates will remain negative until the first quarter of 2010, according to the forecaster. Medium-duty truck production, which was down 53% to 22,000 in the second quarter, will also begin a slow rebound in the third quarter, ACT predicts. But due to continued softness in the construction industry, its growth will be tempered.
“We believe the economy emerged from recession in the third quarter and expect gradual strengthening through 2010,” said Kenny Vieth, partner and senior analyst with ACT Research. “However, growth is likely to be slower than in a traditional recovery as consumers and financial institutions pare debt; baby-boomers increase their savings; government stimulus slows; and longer-term, higher taxes, inflation or both impact consumption and investment.”
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