ARLINGTON, Va. — The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index jumped 3.2 percent in May, the first increase since February.

However, May’s boost wasn’t enough to correct the 6.7 cumulative reduction experienced in March and April.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, was up 0.4 percent from April, to 102.

Compared with May 2008, tonnage contracted 11 percent, which was the best year-over-year result in three months. In April, tonnage took a 13.2 percent plunge from last year, but the May drop is still historically significant, ATA says.

While ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello expressed hope regarding the improvement, he still cautioned that tonnage is not likely to surge anytime soon.

"I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, but I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight transportation is ready to explode," Costello said. "The consumer is still facing too many headwinds, including employment losses, tight credit, rising fuel prices, and falling home values, to name a few, that will make it very difficult for household spending to jump in the near term." 

It’s not a full recovery yet, but the signs
are that the trucking industry has probably bottomed out

He added, though, that he doesn’t expect tonnage to deteriorate much further.

Meanwhile, some more cautiously optimistic news in the world of heavy-duty sales:

According to the latest edition of FTR Associates’ North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook, sales for heavy-duty commercial vehicles are seeing a slow recovery.

While the firm does anticipate orders to regain some of the ground lost, FTR believes 2010 production will still fall 30 percent below 2008 levels. FTR said its original prediction of a 47 percent drop for 2009 has not changed.

"While the near-term picture is becoming clearer every day, there is an unusual amount of uncertainty with regard to 2011 and beyond," said Eric Starks, president of FTR. "We are in an unprecedented economic situation where past performance does not necessarily provide relevant guideposts. The range of possible outcomes is still very wide, with either a continued slow recovery or a faster snap-back both quite possible. We are therefore urging our subscribers to remain flexible with regard to their 2011 planning at this time."

Net orders for trailers, meanwhile, also improved in May, coming in at levels higher than the lows experienced in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.

According to the latest State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report, conducted by ACT Research, the month’s numbers may provide hope that trailer orders are coming off a bottom.

While May orders were still off 37 percent from the previous year, the second quarter is already ahead of the total net orders reported in the last two quarters.

"Order improvement and an increasing backlog from continued low production levels are both positives," said Gayatri Deshpande, research analyst with ACT Research. "However, there are still significant headwinds in the economy and the industry that will challenge new demand for the remainder of 2009."