Trucking-related economic activity stalled in the final quarter of 2025, with mounting headwinds pointing to a challenging year ahead, according to a new report from MacKay & Company.

The firm’s latest Truckable Economic Activity (TEA) report shows total activity declined by $4 billion in Q4, following a volatile year shaped largely by tariff-driven demand swings.

The modest drop capped a year that began with an artificial surge in Q1, when shippers rushed freight ahead of tariff implementation, only to see activity normalize — and weaken — through the remainder of 2025.

Consumption slows, investment weakens

Two core pillars of trucking demand — consumption and investment — are showing signs of strain, MacKay & Company reports.

Truckable consumption, which accounts for about 45% of total activity, continued to grow but at a slower pace. Of particular concern was a sharp deceleration in motor vehicle and parts activity, a key freight driver.

Meanwhile, truckable investment slipped $4.4 billion in the quarter, dragged down by a $16.4 billion drop in inventories that outweighed modest gains in fixed investment.

While spending on data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure remains strong — accounting for about 30% of fixed investment — it is masking broader softness in construction, both residential and non-residential.

Trade remains a drag

Trade flows continue to weigh on trucking demand.

Exports posted another quarter of modest growth but remain constrained by weak global demand and ongoing tariff disputes. Imports, meanwhile, continued to contract as companies adjust to earlier front-loaded shipments and ongoing policy uncertainty.

The report notes uncertainty surrounding trade policy — including potential changes to the USMCA agreement — is further clouding the outlook.

Fuel costs surge, threatening profitability

Adding to the pressure is a sharp rise in fuel prices.

Diesel prices surged past $5 per gallon in March, a spike the report warns could have “devastating effects” on freight sector profitability, particularly for owner-operators.

Higher fuel costs are also expected to ripple through maintenance and aftermarket spending, as fleets look to trim expenses.

Employment trends raise red flags

Revised labor data shows trucking employment has been trending downward for the past two years, diverging from overall economic activity — a signal of structural change in the industry.

The report suggests freight may be shifting away from longhaul truckload toward intermodal and regional distribution models, though the extent of that shift remains unclear.

Outlook: ‘A very challenging year’

MacKay & Company warns that all major components of trucking activity are now under pressure, with little indication of near-term relief.

Consumer spending is softening, investment outside of tech is weak, trade remains constrained, and inflation — driven in part by rising energy costs — could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.

Compounding the uncertainty is a potential shift in monetary policy direction, depending on leadership at the Federal Reserve.

Sustaining even modest growth will be difficult, MacKay & Company warns, and 2026 is shaping up to be “a very challenging year” for the trucking industry.