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Economic yellow lights flashing, ACT warns


COLUMBUS, Ind. – Yellow lights continue to burn for the U.S. economy and the North American commercial vehicle industry, ACT Research reports.

“While the outlook has less of an orange tinge, sufficient caution flags remain to keep the yellow light burning regarding the near to mid-term economic outlook,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “While we’ve seen improvement in petroleum prices, equity valuations, and a monetary policy pause, we remain cautious regarding indicators like a flat yield curve, quantitative tightening, potential fallout from tariffs and trade wars, as well as the global economic slowdown.”

As far as the heavy vehicle industry is concerned, Vieth said: “ACT’s Tractor Dashboard posted a third consecutive negative five reading in December, suggesting demand will increasingly come under pressure in the first half of 2019.”

But he noted that the heavy commercial vehicle market continues to benefit from a still-broad spectrum of supply and demand-side triggers. “The rolling-over of ACT’s Dashboard guidance suggests order weakness will transition from today’s ‘too much backlog’ to an equipment supply-freight demand imbalance in the near future.”


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