There’s about a 50/50 chance of a recession in the U.S., but truck makers will benefit from pent-up demand and trucking company profitability, ACT Research reports.

“With the current head of steam that includes healthy consumer and business balance sheets, strong employment demand, and pent-up manufacturing sector activity, this inflation-driven economic slowdown is on one hand somewhat unique,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.

“On the other, traditional recession predictors are in play: [U.S. Federal Reserve interest] rate hikes, high energy prices, negative exogenous events and falling equity valuations come to mind. Some have called the current period of turbulence unprecedented, and there is a growing consensus around the notion that we promote here: A slowdown is coming. We don’t know if it will be shallower or deeper.”

As for the impact on truck makers, Vieth added “At this point, still strong carrier profitability and pent-up demand mean that this year’s expectations for commercial vehicle demand remain essentially unchanged, with full-year production volumes still primarily dependent on supply chain outcomes.”