‘Sectoral recessions’ likely in 2019: ACT Research

by Truck News

COLUMBUS, Ind. – The commercial vehicle market remains strong, but the U.S. economy is expected to decelerate, according to a report from ACT Research.

ACT’s Transportation Digest noted Class 8 truck orders enter 2019 with positive momentum from a record-setting 2018. Trailer orders, while solid, are not following a normal seasonal path, ACT reported.

It also reported U.S. economic growth is expected to slow in 2019, as monetary policy and supply have become less accommodative.

“While economic pressures and uncertainty have caused some to raise the specter of a recession, starting in 2019, we think that projecting a recession at this point is premature,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Even though there are signs of weakness, there are also signs of continued strength, not least is the robust December labor market report. That said, we are not suggesting there is no basis for concern, but the weakness of economic activity we project has led us to expect ‘sectoral recessions’.”

Regarding the Class 8 market, Vieth said, “The heavy-duty truck market is maintaining its momentum, but the critical question at this point regards cycle duration. We are working to interpret the meaning of falling stock markets, the flight to safety in bonds, the downward spiral in energy and industrial commodity prices, and accumulating evidence of a global slowdown, which have caused the perspectives on the next six to eight quarters to become hazy, with downside risks.”

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