Retail U.S. diesel prices are expected to decline throughout 2026, with the national average falling to $3.41 per gallon by the fourth quarter, according to the Department of Energy. The U.S. average price on Jan. 19 was $3.53.

Gasoline prices will average $2.92 per gallon in 2026, a decrease of 18 cents per gallon, or about 6%, compared with 2025, DOE’s Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook. For 2027, diesel prices will increase, ending the year at $3.57 per gallon, while retail gasoline will average $2.95, which is still below 2025 levels in most regions.

After reaching an annual record of 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production will decrease by less than 1% in 2026 and by about 2% in 2027. U.S. crude oil production will remain close to the 2025 average on an annual basis in 2026, before falling by 340,000 barrels per day in 2027.

Oil prices will average $52 a barrel in 2026 and $50 a barrel in 2027, down from $65 a barrel in 2025. EIA noted that evolving conditions in Venezuela remain a key uncertainty in its oil forecast.

The outlook also projected electricity consumption to grow by 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, marking the first four years of consecutive growth since 2005–07. The increased consumption is mostly due to rising power demand in the commercial and industrial sectors.