November 14, 2018 Vol. 15 No. 22

A survey by KPMG has confirmed my thinking about power sources of the near future. The giant consulting firm’s 19th annual Global Automotive Executive Survey by its ‘Automotive Institute’ suggests that “There will not be a single solitary drivetrain technology” as we move forward.

Now, bear in mind that the survey focused on the automotive world and respondents were split between consumers and car-maker executives. So we’re not dealing with an exact mirror of what’s going on with commercial vehicles. Still, there are significant points of overlap, and some are mighty interesting.

First, motive power. I’ve written a few times this year that my money is on the hydrogen fuel cell as the eventual power source of the future, the one that will seize the biggest chunk of the internal combustion engine’s territory, and maybe not so long into the future. Nikola’s progress suggests that even long-haul heavy trucks will be able to go that route at some point soon. Clearly it will be plug-in battery-electric technology making the biggest progress in the near term, certainly for commercial vehicles in the lighter weight ranges and for a lot of medium-duty trucks. No disagreement on that one. But there’s also little argument that diesel,  plus gasoline, natural gas to a limited extent, and propane too, will collectively dominate for quite a while yet.

BUT WAIT. KPMG RESPONDENTS had this to say about the trends they see:

* Fuel-cell electric vehicles have replaced battery electric vehicles as this year’s #1 key trend until 2025.

* Although fully electric drivetrains dominate the ranking again this year, trends indicate that the future technology roadmap is likely to see various drivetrain technologies co-existing.

* There will not be a single solitary drivetrain technology: executives project a similar split by 2040 for BEVs (26%), FCEVs (25%), ICEs (25%) and hybrids (24%).”