A new analysis from Fleet Advantage suggests fleets running older equipment are facing sharply higher operating costs as diesel prices surge, strengthening the business case for faster replacement cycles.

The company’s latest Truck Life Cycle Data Index (TLDI) compares total operating costs for Class 8 trucks from model years 2022-2026 against newer 2028 equipment. It finds that fleets could save up to $12,845 per truck in the first year by upgrading from a 2022 model, or about $1.28 million annually across a 100-truck fleet.

The findings come as diesel prices climb above $5 per gallon in the U.S., with the report citing an April national average of $5.47.

Fuel efficiency accounts for a large share of the savings. Fleet Advantage said replacing a 2022 sleeper with a 2028 model could reduce fuel costs by about $10,854 per truck in the first year — roughly a 16% reduction — while also lowering emissions.

“The surge in diesel prices we’re witnessing today doesn’t create a new problem … it dramatically accelerates an existing one,” said Brian Antonellis, senior vice president of fleet operations. “At almost $5.50 per-gallon diesel, that burden becomes a financial crisis.”

Even when factoring in tariffs and rising equipment costs, the report concludes upgrading remains financially advantageous. With a $4,500 tariff applied to new equipment, fleets replacing 2022 trucks could still save nearly $11,900 per unit, or about $1.18 million across 100 trucks.

Fleet Advantage also warned that delaying replacement decisions can expose fleets to additional risks, including rising component costs, evolving emissions regulations, and higher maintenance expenses tied to aging equipment.

The report points to multi-year procurement planning as a key strategy, allowing fleets to better manage total cost of ownership while taking advantage of newer, more efficient technologies.