The 39,131 Class 8 trucks sold in Canada last year shattered a sales record set the previous year and was a remarkable 14,000 units above the five year average. The six straight years of rising sales ending in 2006 also marked the longest sales growth trend of the last 15 years. The pre-buy employed by many fleets to put off investing in the higher-cost 2007 model engines had a significant impact on last year’s sales total and is certain to have an impact on the sharp drop in sales expected for this year. The only question remaining unanswered is the extent of the drop. Most truck OEs have predicted a 35% to 40% drop in sales this year, which would be in line with past “cliff” years, but after the first quarter Class 8 sales are not facing as precipitous a drop as feared. Our own calculations estimated annual demand for Class 8 trucks during 2005-2007 at 32,319 vehicles, based on how many vehicles were due for replacement. Sales exceeded that figure in 2005 and 2006, which may indicate the impact of the pre-buy with sales intended for 2007 and 2008 being pulled forward. Regardless, even if Class 8 sales for 2007 end up between 22,000 and 24,000, it would still make for a sales performance better than six of the past 15 years.

Class 8 Sales 1990-2006