The National Retail Federation forecast that retail sales in 2026 will grow by 4.4% to $5.6 trillion. 

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”

The latest projection is based on a new forecasting approach developed in partnership with Oxford Economics. The 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the 2020-2022 pandemic period.

“Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape,” NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said. “While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.”

Consumer activity is expected to receive a modest boost in the first half of the year from larger refunds associated with recently enacted tax cuts. 

Labor market conditions are expected to soften, with muted non‑farm employment growth throughout much of the year. Even so, the unemployment rate is projected to remain below 4.5%.

Although consumer sentiment is not expected to improve significantly, NRF notes that sentiment has remained historically disconnected from actual spending patterns. Solid underlying fundamentals, particularly income growth, household balance sheets and labor market stability, are expected to support continued consumer activity in 2026.