NEW YORK, (May 23, 2005) — Preliminary Class 8 net new truck orders reported were down 23 percent this past March from February and 25 percent from March ’04 — the first year/year decline since May ’03, says Bear Stearns analysts.

Downtick could be due to price increases by some OEMs, Bear Stearns says, modestly decelerating freight rate increases and modest softening of tonnage growth. Demand typically goes up when freight growth is accelerating and rolls over when freight growth is decelerating, the analysts note.

Freight growth should continue in ’05/’06 but Q2 earnings pre-reports by a few carriers, plus the ATA index reports and other indicators, point to a decelerated growth rate. EPA ’07 pre-buy will also affect sales.

One question: How much of the pre-buy is already in the Class 8 back-log? Analysts report that national truckload carriers say they’ve reserved ’06 production slots but manufacturers say those orders haven’t yet been counted in the books.

New truck sales will continue to gain momentum in ’05 due to increased capital spending and overall economic growth, Gerald Turnauer, chairman of the American Truck Dealers, tells Heavy Duty Trucking magazine. Turnauer told the ’05 ATD Convention that ATD anticipates 20 percent growth in overall new unit sales this year and up to 25 percent growth in Class 8 sales.

“Many industries are building up their inventories to pre-recession levels and capital spending continues to increase steadily,” he says. “Correspondingly, there’s more demand for new trucks of all weight groups, as well as low-mileage used Class 8trucks.” But, he adds, sales will be constrained by the limited availability of components and engines, as well as bottlenecks in production.

— from Heavy-Duty Trucking