Truck OEMs are canceling and rebooking orders for vehicles in the face of persisting supply chain challenges and worker shortages, the analysts at FTR report.

FTR notes the net 24,500 Class 8 truck orders in October were down 12% from September, and a full 39% lower year over year. Such orders have hovered between 23,000 and 28,000 units for five of the last six months.

“The OEMs are having tremendous difficulty planning production for Q1,” said Don Ake, vice-president – commercial vehicles. “Unfinished orders are rolling over from 2021 and there are fleets placing new orders for 2022 delivery. All these fleets are desperate for new trucks, and the challenge for the OEMs is to book the maximum production possible without excessive overbooking.”

Some OEMs are not only canceling 2021 orders but rebooking them for 2022 at higher price points, given elevated commodity costs and other price pressures, FTR added.

“It is interesting that the order rate has been basically tracking the production rate since May, with a couple of exceptions. It indicates that the market is essentially frozen in this range of around 22,000-26,000 trucks. Without the clogged supply chain, production would be significantly higher, and orders would be elevated also,” Ake said.