Truckload rates in the United States are climbing even as freight demand remains muted, pointing to a supply-driven shift in pricing power, according to new quarterly data from U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics.

Per-mile costs edged higher in February, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases in both spot and contract rates. Spot rates rose 3.6% during the month, while contract rates ticked up 0.1%, continuing a trend that began late last year.

The more telling signal is how far spot pricing has rebounded. After bottoming at $1.57 per mile in May 2025, spot linehaul climbed to $2.01 per mile by February 2026 — a roughly 28% increase. Contract rates moved more modestly, rising from $1.99 to $2.12 per mile over the same period.

That divergence suggests tightening capacity — not stronger freight volumes — is driving the market.

A sharp inflection came late in 2025, when spot linehaul jumped nearly 16% month over month in December, coinciding with a short-term bump in spot volumes. Contract pricing followed, but at a slower pace, reflecting the typical lag between spot market signals and contract repricing.

Perhaps the most unusual aspect of the current cycle is that rates are rising while volumes decline, the report outlined.

From March 2025 through February 2026, spot linehaul increased about 23.3% and contract rates rose roughly 5%, even as spot volumes slipped 3.7% and contract volumes fell 22.1%.

“This is a supply-led shift,” the report says, with carriers exercising capacity discipline and becoming more selective on freight.

One key outcome is the rapid compression of the contract premium — the gap between contract and spot pricing. That spread has narrowed from about 39 cents per mile a year ago to roughly 11 cents, reducing the cushion shippers rely on when managing routing guides and backup capacity.

Fuel has played only a minor role in the shift. Fuel costs rose about 2.5% year over year, far below the increase in spot rates, reinforcing that linehaul pricing and capacity dynamics are the primary drivers.

The report concludes the market has repriced ahead of any demand recovery, with spot leading the move and contract rates likely to continue drifting higher as they catch up.