ACT’s freight forecast: ‘Stronger for longer’

by Today's Trucking

ACT Research is forecasting a peak freight season that will be stronger for longer than usual.

“Freight markets remain tight as we head into a clearly historic peak season with unprecedented containership backlogs, currently about 125 at anchor at North American ports,” reports Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice-president and senior analyst.

“The chip shortage may have some light at the end of the tunnel, but it continues to slow equipment capacity growth. And the Delta variant, which worsened the chip shortage, could also impact the nascent and gradual recovery in driver supply.”

While national job growth is slowing south of the border, Denoyer pointed out trucking employment continues to improve.

Chart showing trucking employment

He added, “The effects from the pandemic, driver demographics, e-commerce driving jobs and the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse are lengthening the rate cycle, but we expect economic incentives to eventually outweigh the secular driver supply constraints.”

When asked about the intermodal situation, Denoyer said, “Network congestion has interrupted freight movement despite strong demand. Due in large part to the 200%+ tariffs on Chinese chassis and subassemblies since late last year [made official in May], chassis production is 35% below where it should be at this point in the cycle.” He concluded, “Amid perhaps the strongest freight demand of all time, the US chassis fleet is shrinking because of these tariffs, which make the situation tough to remedy quickly. We expect intermodal volumes to be impacted through this peak season and beyond.”

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  • We need the Ont gov to provide insurance for small fleets and new drivers of buses and wheelchair vans and trucks . We also need a system that provides min pay and terms of employment instead of bringing in foreign drivers for larger fleets and those that can self insure. This shortage did not need to happen if different actions had occurred in the past 2 years. There is no good reason why myself and other injured truck drivers end up homeless because a work related injuries that do not drink alcohol or do drugs.