COLUMBUS, Ind. – A freight recession is likely, and a rate recession even more likely, according to the latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook published by ACT Research.

The truck supply and freight demand are falling out of balance, according to the industry forecaster.

“While there is a very low probability and no expectation of an economy-wide recession in 2019, freight-related data points have been sufficiently bad in breadth and duration to note that a freight recession is possible, although unlikely,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “That said, slower freight growth, an easing of driver supply constraints, the resumption of the long-run freight productivity trend, and strong Class 8 tractor fleet growth will increasingly pressure rates and by extension, trucker profitability in 2019.”