Freight metrics continue to head south, according to ACT Research’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report.

The industry forecaster said freight-related metrics that began to deteriorate in March have continued into early May.

“In additional to deteriorating freight-related metrics, there appears to be little relief from the three key macro-related themes of 2022: war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, and inflation, which means market participants are increasingly weighing the risk of a recession,” said Eric Crawford, vice-president and senior analyst with ACT.

“That said, North American commercial vehicle markets continue to embody a balancing act between demand-driven optimism and supply side realism: Supply chain constraints continue to impact the industry’s ability to raise production levels to align with demand. As a result, backlogs remain long and order volumes remain constrained due to ‘within 12 months’ order reporting ground rules. Until build rates find additional traction, orders will largely mirror production levels.”

Crawford said OEMs have increased their daily production, but still not to planned levels. Class 8 build was 8% below plans due to supply chain constraints. Classes 5-7 build rates were only 1% below expectations.

“And with still long backlogs and OEM reticence to extend those backlogs in the face of supply-chain uncertainties, and with spot rates beginning to roll over in March, order activity deteriorated in April, down from its heretofore generally sideways movement,” added Crawford.