There are approximately 294,000 Class 8 trucks on the road today. How many replacements can be expected on an annual basis? The answer to that question requires first settling on a suitable average re...
There are approximately 294,000 Class 8 trucks on the road today. How many replacements can be expected on an annual basis? The answer to that question requires first settling on a suitable average replacement cycle for Canadian heavy- duty trucks. Most industry analysts in the US, use a nine-year replacement cycle. But we feel that because Canadian trucks travel longer distances and are used in harsher environments, a seven-year replacement cycle is more realistic. (A truck may go through more than one owner during that time, it should be noted.) Also required is settling on a reasonable growth demand. While there is no widely accepted multiple of GDP upon which to base growth in truck sales, we’ve chosen 3.4%, a conservative number considering trucking tends to outperform the Canadian economy. Using those two assumptions in combination, we can estimate how many trucks are up for replacement each specific year and add to that total the expected growth beyond replacements. Our calculations estimated annual demand for Class 8 trucks during 2005-2007 at 32,319 vehicles. Sales exceeded that figure in 2005 and 2006, which may indicate the impact of the pre-buy with sales intended for 2007 and 2008 being pulled forward.
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