LOMBARD, Ill. — Nearly a million class 8 trucks will be retailed over the four-year period between 2006 through ’09 — whether or not there are problems with low-emission ’07 engines, says a leading North American trucking market research firm.

According to Lombard, Ill-based MacKay & Co. some 940,000 class 8 trucks will be sold during that period. If there are problems, sales could drop to 140,000, but will sharply over next 2 years for a massive pre-buy in advance of very stringent 2010 emission rules.

A handful of OEMs unveiled new models for ’07. No doubt
others will follow in advance of an expected sales spike in 08-09.

If there no major problems, ’07 could produce up to 210,000 sales even while most large truckload carriers hold off buying ’07 engines, says Mackay.

The average Class 8 truck age is now 7.75 years, up from 7.4 years in 2000 and trending toward 7.79 in 2010. Product design and quality improvements have made the difference, MacKay says.

In 1991 an owner (usually the first owner) spent nearly $6,000 a year on maintenance in the fourth and fifth years of a truck’s life, says the firm. “That doesn’t happen now until the sixth year and it’s usually a second owner.”

Therefore, average service hours spent on engine overhauls is down 37 percent from l997; drivetrain hours down 38 percent; and suspension hours down 33 percent.

Extended trade cycles and growing truck population mean continuing strong aftermarket, says MacKay.

Class 6 and 7 sales also expected to slip in ’07, then recover strongly through ’09. U.S.

— Via Heavy Duty Trucking