COLUMBUS, Ind. — ACT Research is predicting that commercial vehicle orders will slow in the first quarter of 2010, as the more costly EPA2010-certified engines come on-stream.
Net orders were up in late 2009 as companies rushed to secure pre-EPA2010 engines, but those build slots are now full, the forecaster reports in its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook.
Still, ACT predicted heavy-duty vehicle production will be up 22% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010 as OEMs fulfill orders for EPA07 engines. ACT said medium-duty production, which is linked to the housing market, will se a more steady and gradual increase in production through 2010 and 2011.
“With the industry out of pre-mandate build slots, there is very little near-term support for domestic order activity,” said Kenny Vieth, partner and senior analyst with ACT Research. “Since the price of a new Class 8 unit is set to rise sharply and the trucking industry is still dealing with excess capacity and weak used sales values, we expect OEMs will be particularly aggressive marketing product outside the US and Canada.”
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