December Truck Orders Post Strong Rebound

BLOOMINGTON and COLUMBUS, IN – Two new and separate preliminary reports show truck orders spiked in the final month of 2015 following a disappointing November.

Freight-forecaster FTR has released preliminary data showing December 2015 North American Class 8 truck net orders at 27,800 units, a 70 percent improvement over November and considerably above expectations.  

Despite the jump, December 2015 orders were down 36 percent year-over-year. When combining November and December, Class 8 orders were close to the average for the past ten months and totaled 284,000 for the year. 

“The improved December orders provide some needed stability to what was a shaky Class 8 market,” said Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles. “Orders have averaged about 22,000 per month for the last ten months and in the fourth quarter averaged 23,300, so the orders have been very consistent for a while, just at a lower level. The improved December orders are not high enough to prevent the announced production cuts however.”

The December orders show there is still solid demand for Class 8 trucks in 2016, according to FTR. It expects backlogs will actually increase in December for the first time since February. 

“Orders should retreat some next month, with the industry in a more balanced state once the planned production cuts are complete,” said Ake.

Meantime, commercial vehicle industry data provider ACT Research said for the month of December, 49,700 Class 5-8 vehicle orders were booked in North America, up 40 percent month-over-month.

“December’s volume represented the strongest aggregate month for net orders since 50,900 orders were booked in February, 2015,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Despite being up sequentially, orders fell over 17,000 units, or 26 percent, from December 2014, marking the ninth consecutive month in which industry orders fell below year-ago levels.”

At 28,100 units in December, North America Class 8 net orders were the best since February, according to the ACT Research estimate. Orders in December were up 68 percent compared to November’s weak tally, but at the same time fell 36 percent below last December’s fourth-best-ever volume. Seasonal adjustment drops December’s Class 8 orders to 22,500 units.

ACT Research also reported strong orders continued for Classes 5-7 in December, with orders rising above 20,000 units for the third time in the past four months, a feat last accomplished in mid-2006. For the month, North America medium-duty Classes 5-7 vehicle net orders were 21,600 units. While up 15 percent from November, December’s order volume was down 5 percent from a year ago.

“December is typically a strong order month. As such, seasonal adjustment lowers December’s medium duty net order volume to 20,500 units,” said Vieth.


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