Global trade poised for growth

OTTAWA — Growth in world trade by all modes of transportation in the next two years will quickly make up for the losses of last year according to the latest forecast from IHS Global Insight.

In the global forecaster’s latest World Trade Service report, trade is estimated to grow 8.1 percent in 2010 and 6.9 percent in 2011, which compares to a 7.2 percent contraction in world trade in 2009.

Global containerized trade volumes should reach 10 percent, with a slightly stronger recovery at 10.6 percent on the mainline East-West trade lanes in 2010, before slowing over the next two years. Exports from the Far East to North America and Europe bounced back as importers began to re-stock their depleted inventories as sales growth renewed.

According to IHS Global Insight, trade will grow into 2011, but it’s expected to be slower than 2010 growth. Still, 2010 and 2011 will be strong years relative to the hardship of 2008 and 2009, with 3 percent and 8 percent growth on TEU volumes, respectively.

Bulk shipping is also showing improvement from a 2.8 percent drop in bulk commodity trade in 2009. IHS Global Insight forecasts bulk commodities to grow in 2010 through 2011. Dry bulk commodity shipment tonnage, which includes grain, iron ore, and coal, will increase 10.3 percent in 2010 and 8.7 percent in 2011.

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