Conditions are in place for a significant spike in M&A activity across the transportation and logistics sector, according to the Tenney Group. 

“Significant capacity has left the market, and a variety of other key factors are driving industry consolidation, including freight rates surpassing Covid-era levels, broad inflationary pressures, record amount of dry powder, aging business owners, AI’s impact, and the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Montgomery case,” the company said in its mid-year M&A report. 

Tenney expects higher M&A activity for the remainder of 2026, with activity approaching record-breaking levels next year. There will also be an increase in larger transactions, following several years characterized by smaller, highly specialized transactions.

Ashesh Pansuria, director of the Tenney Group, said that nearshoring continues to reshape the transportation and logistics market. 

With Mexico remaining the United States’ largest trading partner, more supply chain leaders are shifting sourcing away from China. As a result, cross-border operators are attracting growing interest from strategic and financial buyers. 

“Assets such as C-TPAT certification, customs brokerage capabilities, and established footprints in key gateways like Laredo, El Paso, and Nogales are becoming increasingly valuable,” he said. 

Pansuria added that the upcoming USMCA review is heightening the urgency of acquisition decisions. 

“Whether the agreement is renewed or revised, established cross-border operators stand to benefit from increasing compliance complexity and demand for trusted infrastructure,” Pansuria said.