WINDSOR, CO – Transport Capital Partners says carriers are seeing adequate returns but are still cautious about growth trends.

Over 75% of carriers gave a positive response in the latest Transport Capital Partners (TCP) survey asking, “Are you earning a sufficient rate of return to invest in new equipment?”

The company’ fourth-quarter survey report, prepared by Richard Mikes and Lana Batts, is titled “High Optimism for Future Volume and Rate Increases Now Coupled with Actual Rate Increases.” A summary of results can be seen in graphic form here.

The report cautions, however, that U.S. carriers remain prudent in their plans for capacity growth.

“Notwithstanding this positive news (about rates of return), the recent review of HOS in the budget bill may slow expected capacity additions,” says TCP partner Steven Dutro. “Going back to prior rules may free up 2% to 4% of driver capacity in 2015.”

Carriers are still being judicious about the amount of capacity they intend to add, he said.

Forty percent indicate they intend to add 1-5% over the next 12 months while 25% indicate they will add 6-10%. Roughly a quarter of all respondents indicated they intend to add no capacity.

Larger carriers are more likely to add no capacity than smaller carriers (28% vs. 18%). But larger carriers are also more likely to significantly increase capacity (by 6-10%) than smaller carriers (35% vs. 20%).

TCP partner and survey co-author, Richard Mikes says smaller carriers are either buying with cash or buying used trucks.

“We believe this is because smaller carriers tend to be more risk averse over time, based on their experience in recessionary cycles where lenders tighten up or leave the industry,” he said. “Smaller carriers manage risk by either, one, waiting until they have enough capital … or, two, buying used trucks and conserving capital.”