Shipper conditions improve, but waves lie ahead

NASHVILLE, Ind. — Conditions for freight shippers got better into the summer months as economic and freight growth slowed, easing the strain on capacity and slowing the rise in rates.

So says FTR Associates’ Shippers Condition Index (SCI) as reported in the August Shippers Update. The index edged up in June to a current reading of -3.1.

The SCI sums up all market influences that affect shippers.

While anything below zero is still considered "unfavorable," that’s a big rise over the -11.4 low in March.

However, the rate of improvement in the SCI has slowed each month and FTR is projecting the index to fall again starting with the July reading as freight demand begins to accelerate.

These conditions are expected to negatively impact shippers through the balance of the year.

"Given the recent drumbeat of negative economic reports it may seem counter-intuitive to be calling for rate increases going forward," said Larry Gross, senior consultant for FTR. "But truckers have been reporting solid rate performance thus far this year even in the face of GDP growth of less than 1 percent.

"This indicates that freight demand and capacity are in balance. With truckers not adding capacity and barring an economic recession, we expect to see modest growth in the market as we enter the normal peak season which will keep pressure on the shipping environment.

"Of course we are dealing with more than the usual amount of uncertainty at the moment so we will be closely watching for signs of weakness in the coming months.”  


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