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Sino-U.S. trade war complicating forecasts: ACT


COLUMBUS, Ind. – The main risk to all commercial vehicle market forecasts remains America’s trade war with China, according to the North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, released by ACT Research.

“This month’s chart, (showing) the U.S. dollar v Chinese yuan (RMB), illustrates why trade wars are neither good, nor easy to win,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.

“As can be seen, after the U.S. fired the latest salvo in the trade war Aug. 1, the Chinese responded with in-kind tariffs and a 3% currency devaluation – so far. Since the first ‘shots’ of the trade war were fired March 1, 2018, the RMB has fallen 12% versus the dollar”

Vieth said tariffs imposed by the U.S. have been met with in-kind tariffs from China, and the Chinese government has allowed the yuan to devalue, thereby offsetting the U.S. tariff impact, while simultaneously making U.S goods even more expensive in China.

ACT Research is a major publisher of commercial vehicle data.

 


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