ACT Research says the recent surge in truckload spot rates is being driven more by shrinking capacity than by a meaningful freight recovery.

In its latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook report, the firm said the current freight cycle is increasingly supply-driven, with tightening truck capacity pushing rates sharply higher following International Roadcheck.

“A supply-driven freight cycle doesn’t imply strong volumes, and this time is no different,” ACT said.

The firm noted truckload spot rates, excluding fuel, rose roughly 30% year over year coming out of Roadcheck enforcement week.

“Improving survey data, including a jump in the ACT For-Hire Volume Index, suggest our friends at medium and large dry van and reefer fleets are beginning to see significantly stronger demand, even as the broader market does not,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research.

Denoyer said much of the apparent demand improvement is actually tied to reduced capacity rather than a major improvement in freight fundamentals.

“The source of this early demand increase is primarily capacity reduction, which has accelerated this year due to an incipient driver shortage,” he said.

ACT pointed to a sharp deterioration in driver availability over the past several months. Its For-Hire Driver Availability Index remained above 50 — indicating excess driver supply — from June 2022 through December 2025, a stretch of 43 consecutive months. In April, however, the index fell to 30.4, signaling a tightening labor market.

Denoyer said new Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration regulations are helping accelerate the capacity squeeze.

“New FMCSA regulations have acted as a catalyst, and seem likely to result in tighter capacity and higher rates from here,” he said.