COLUMBUS, Ind. – More than 100,000 electric commercial vehicles will be sold by 2035, according to a report from ACT Research.
The study, Commercial Vehicle Electrification: To Charge or Not To Charge, concludes that commercial electric vehicles will grow from a small beachhead today to a significant share of the Classes 4-8 market by 2035.
“We believe that electrification will offer a competitive solution for an increasing number of commercial vehicle segments as we look to the decade ahead and beyond,” said Jim Meil, principal, industry analysis for ACT. “Initial adoption will likely be in shorter-range hauls with frequent stops and starts, regular and predictable routes, and daily return-to-base for overnight charging types of operations. Early adopters will tend to be in medium duty and highly specialized Class 8 applications that make the current limitations of battery storage technology more manageable.”
The study reports that as battery technology advances, performance will improve and costs will drop, making a wider range of applications and duty cycles suitable for electrification.
“We see shares reaching about 20% for medium-duty and double digits for Class 8 as a ‘most likely’ case by 2035,” Meil said. “In favorable case circumstances – such as oil and diesel prices escalating as they did in 2005, 2009 and 2011 – market take rates for CEVs could get to one-third or higher, depending on the segment.”